Ryanair has adjusted its passenger forecast for the fiscal year 2027, lowering it to 214 million from an earlier projection of 216 million. This revision comes as the airline plans to reduce its winter capacity to mitigate the impact of high unhedged jet-fuel costs. At present, jet fuel prices hover around $140 per barrel, prompting Ryanair to caution that continued high prices may lead to substantially increased European short-haul airfares. The airline anticipates that passenger traffic between November and March will remain relatively unchanged from the previous year, as it strategically manages capacity during the typically slow winter period.
The airline has taken steps to protect itself from fluctuating fuel costs by hedging approximately 80% of its fuel requirements for fiscal 2027 through March 2027 at an average price of about $67 per barrel. This strategy offers Ryanair a buffer against the current high fuel prices. The reduction in winter capacity is expected to decrease seasonal losses by an estimated €70 million to €100 million. In line with these adjustments, Ryanair has already withdrawn five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and scaled back its Brussels schedule by about two million seats for winter 2026 and summer 2027. The company has also expressed concern that airlines with less fuel hedging might face greater financial strain if oil prices remain elevated.
Despite the challenges of the winter season, Ryanair maintains a positive outlook for summer traffic, projecting growth of over 5%. In August, the airline reported a 6% increase in passenger numbers compared to the previous year, reaching 22.2 million. The load factor for the month was consistent at 96%. Ryanair managed to operate more than 120,500 flights during August, although over 400 flights were cancelled due to eruptions from Mount Etna.
Looking ahead, Ryanair expects its profit after tax for fiscal 2027 to fall short of the record levels achieved in the last financial year. However, the airline noted that it is still too early to provide a detailed profit forecast. The company’s proactive measures in fuel hedging and capacity management are part of its strategy to navigate the financial pressures posed by the current economic environment, ensuring it remains resilient despite the challenges of rising fuel costs and seasonal fluctuations in demand.