Australian Poll Shocker: Majority Expect China to Dominate by 2035

In a surprising revelation from recent polling, more Australians now believe China will emerge as the world’s dominant power by 2035, while trust in the United States has hit an unprecedented low. The findings underscore a significant recalibration of geopolitical expectations within Australia.
Only 36% of Australians surveyed expressed trust in the US to act responsibly globally, a precipitous 20-point fall from last year and the lowest figure recorded since the think tank initiated its surveys in 2005. This decline is particularly acute concerning the current US President, whose approach to world affairs garners significantly less confidence than his predecessor. Conversely, the Chinese leader has seen a modest rise in confidence, with Australians equally split on the reliability of the two nations’ leaders.
For the first time since 2020, Australians are equally inclined to view China as an economic partner rather than solely a security threat. Nevertheless, a substantial portion of the populace maintains distrust towards China, anticipating it will become a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. Despite these concerns, and a noticeable dip in confidence, a majority of Australians still expect the US to defend them in the event of an attack.
The ongoing support for the military alliance with the US, even in the face of declining trust in its current leadership, indicates a nuanced public understanding that separates short-term policy unpredictability from long-term institutional relationships. The narrowing gap in trust between Australia’s key security ally and China is a remarkable development, highlighting a significant shift in regional perceptions.